Surviving Tough Times

NEW DELHI: With cash-strapped Indian airlines running to the government for a bailout, many young pilots in these companies are wondering why
expensive expat fliers, whose salary has gone up substantially due to the rupee falling against the dollar, are being retained by the firms in deep financial trouble.

"These expats are a precious drain on our exchequer. With the dollar appreciating, they're now getting 15-20% more salary," says an Indian commander. Even in the present turbulent times, a foreign commander can expect to earn roughly Rs 10 lakh a month, compared to the Indian, who will get paid about Rs 6 lakh. Foreign pilots are given other perks too, pushing up their cost to the company. These include five star hotel accommodation and a generous travel allowance that could be as much as $12,000 or Rs 6 lakh a year.

India's aviation sector has an official headcount of 900 expat pilots. An official of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) says the expats will be phased out by July 31, 2010. But that might be too late. Sources say that Spicejet has not been able to give its young pilots time to reach the mandatory 2,500 flying hours needed to become commanders because expats get to fly more. Senior commanders are also affected. "I'm doing 40-50 hours flying a month," says one, "whereas earlier, I would do approx 80-90 hours monthly."

So why are airlines hiring expats? They were taken on when Indian commanders were in short supply. Explains Siddhanth Sharma, former CEO, Spicejet: "It would take a co-pilot at least three years to notch up the 2,500 hours needed for commandership. So, expats were the only option then."

But that's no longer the case. "Young pilots, currently glutting the market, can be hired and trained to become commanders, while Indian commanders can take the place of expats," says a senior pilot. "Airlines have also recruited expat co-pilots, which we do not need. Airlines have hired expats recklessly without any planning, leaving our boys in the lurch."

India's national carrier, Air India, has 124 expat pilots on its rolls. Most fly the modern wide-bodied, long-range B-777s and the B-737-800s, both recent and new additions to the fleet. Jet Airways has nearly 258 expats, with 198 flying the B-777s and A-330s and 60 piloting the 737s.

AI pilots say the airline's losses can be contained by easing out the expats over the next six months. But AI spokesman Jitender Bhargava says: "Considering we have B-777s in the fleet and are adding more aircraft, phasing out will take time even though we have expedited training."

Are there enough Indian pilots to take the expats' place? Yes, insist senior commanders. Upgrading a 737 pilot to a 777 plane takes just two months. Two years ago, AI did not employ Air Sahara pilots (who fly the 737s) and could have been trained on the 777s. "Instead, expats were (employed)," says an AI commander. Many Jet Airways' Boeing 737 commanders also say they would like a chance to fly the 777s.

The economic downturn means many airlines are returning leased planes, thereby needing fewer pilots. Jet is sending back three leased A330s, four 777s and seven 737s. As each 737 needs 5.5 pilots, Jet will no longer have jobs for at least 40 pilots. With a 777 and A330 needing 11 pilots each, a further 77 pilots will no longer be needed. Many expat pilots would simply be redundant.
 
The economic downturn means many airlines are returning leased planes, thereby needing fewer pilots. Jet is sending back three leased A330s, four 777s and seven 737s. As each 737 needs 5.5 pilots, Jet will no longer have jobs for at least 40 pilots. With a 777 and A330 needing 11 pilots each, a further 77 pilots will no longer be needed. Many expat pilots would simply be redundant.


Als ik het goed hebben maatschapijen als bijv Ryanair ongeveer 9 piloten per 737 in dienst, Hoe kan Jet air dan 5,5 piloten per 737 in dienst hebben? Of maken de toestellen van Jet weinig vlieguren?

Wat is het gem aantal piloten in dienst voor een 737 of A320?
 
More Survival Tips

More Survival Tips

With things going downhill very fast - it may be an idea to increase the amount of cash you have on hand.

The banks don't have your money - Fractional Reserve Banking has seen to that.

Good idea to keep 1-2 months cash on hand rather than in a bank where you may not be able to get at it - at some point deposits may be frozen.

If I ran my finances like the "Banksters" - I'd be in jail for FRAUD

Might be a good idea to increase the amount the amount of groceries you have at home as well.
 
With things going downhill very fast - it may be an idea to increase the amount of cash you have on hand.

The banks don't have your money

Might be a good idea to increase the amount the amount of groceries you have at home as well.

Hoewel ik je adviezen prima waardeer heb ik een beetje het gevoel dat je in dit thread een beetje vergeet dat een groot deel van de forumleden hier met een dikke studieschuld zit. Ze zijn dus niet in de positie even een halfjaar salaris te reserveren en de hypotheek versneld af te betalen. Het aanmoedigen om grote hoeveelheden bij de bank te gaan cashen ( ja 2 maandsalarissen noem ik al een grote hoeveelheid geld) is persoonlijk niet onverstandig, echter draagt niet bij aan het herstel van het (nederlandse) bankwezen.

Als ze mijn geld niet hebben, hebben ze mijn schulden dan ook niet?;)

Meer boodschappen in huis halen? Een moestuin op het balkon beginnen
:p:
 
Hoewel ik je adviezen prima waardeer heb ik een beetje het gevoel dat je in dit thread een beetje vergeet dat een groot deel van de forumleden hier met een dikke studieschuld zit.

The second point of my original post was to pay off your debt - obviously you can't save too much before you do this. I do realise that my position is different than a lot of other people.

Het aanmoedigen om grote hoeveelheden bij de bank te gaan cashen ( ja 2 maandsalarissen noem ik al een grote hoeveelheid geld) is persoonlijk niet onverstandig, echter draagt niet bij aan het herstel van het (nederlandse) bankwezen.

I'm not talking about 1-2 months salary I'm talking about enough cash to live on for 1-2 months.

You may want to read this article in the Telegraph - EU banks are in deep trouble.

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
 
I'm not talking about 1-2 months salary I'm talking about enough cash to live on for 1-2 months.

Dat is inderdaad niet onverstandig. Ook belangrijk op dit moment om te zorgen dat je spaargeld en hypotheek niet bij dezelfde bank lopen.

Hoewel ik steeds triester wordt van de linkjes van 1977 moet ik wel eerlijk bekennen dat het juist deze linkjes zijn die er voor zorgen dat er bij mij thuis ook geen cent teveel wordt uitgegeven in afwachting van wat er komen gaat.

*probeert de recessie van de jaren 20 nog even uit het hoofd te zetten*
 
Ach als we de recessie van eind jaren 20 achterna gaan dan kan je je geld wel van de bank halen, maar is het na wat hyperinflatie ook niet meer waard dan een paar oude kranten.
 
Oude kranten ?

Ik zit er deze winter warpjes bij !

Ik heb mijn Icesave spaartegoed uit laten keren in Ijslandse kronen,

dat waren al erg grote stapals biljetten, en die heb ik vervolgens gewisseld voor Zimbabwaanse dollars.

En nu heb ik genoeg papier om de hele winter te kunnen stoken ! :p:
 
The second point of my original post was to pay off your debt - obviously you can't save too much before you do this. I do realise that my position is different than a lot of other people.



I'm not talking about 1-2 months salary I'm talking about enough cash to live on for 1-2 months.

You may want to read this article in the Telegraph - EU banks are in deep trouble.

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown

Maar aan de andere kant, als de consument nou massaal grote sommen geld van de bank gaat halen en in een sok gaat stoppen, dan ben je toch zelf ook juist bezig banken in de problemen te brengen?

En als alles naar de klote gaat dan ben je na die twee maanden dus als nog de lul.
 
Maar aan de andere kant, als de consument nou massaal grote sommen geld van de bank gaat halen en in een sok gaat stoppen, dan ben je toch zelf ook juist bezig banken in de problemen te brengen?

Daarom doe ik een beetje van beide, cash bij de hand en cash in de bank. Om in het ergste geval nog 6 maanden zonder enig inkomen te kunnen overleven.

Dat is inderdaad niet onverstandig. Ook belangrijk op dit moment om te zorgen dat je spaargeld en hypotheek niet bij dezelfde bank lopen.

Exact! De 'boel' een beetje verspreiden.
 
ik investeer alvast in die op pprune eerder genoemde $1000 aan bier in blik
 
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Heb net gezien dat je gewoon Volkswagen had moeten kopen, effe van 200 naar 1000 dollar/aandeel gestegen. Volgens de beursanalist "Kenne ze nou zo alle autofabrikanten kopen, en dan nog een Lufthansa d'rbij!"
 
October 29, 2008

Recession? What Recession? Airplane Sales Tell the Tale Email this blog |Print this blog

By Paul Bertorelli

If we have learned anything in more than a century of building airplanes, it's that the business is wildly cyclical. If the mainstream economy is a road through rolling hills, the airplane economy is a neck-snapping, looping roller coaster. And usually, the airplane business is a sensitive leading indicator of a sharp economic downturn ahead. Or so goes the standard wisdom.

But something curious is happening right now. For an article I'm working on for the December issue of Aviation Consumer, I've been calling around talking to brokers and aircraftdealers, expecting to hear the worst. Like everyone else, I've been watching—but notobsessing over—the Dow and it's generally assumed that because airplane purchases are discretionary, they're paid for with discretionary earnings from stock investments. If that's true, it appears that it's not universally true.

All of the brokers I've talked to report that sales aren't nearly as bad as the Dow's wild swings would suggest. "We haven't seen a downturn, even with the market down," Howard Van Bortel told me. "For October, single-engine sales are up slightly. I don't know if we're an anomaly or not." Other brokers report softness in sales and pricing and slower sales activity than a year ago, but sales aren't in free fall. "Then again," says Fred Ahles and Premier Aircraft Sales, "it may be early."

That's another way of saying that if we aren't in a recession now, we might soon be. Maybe that's true and maybe it isn't. If airplane buyers think we're in a recession, they're not yet acting that way. Further, if you examine the data, the economy isn't in recession at all. For the first quarter of 2008, GDP growth was .9 percent and for the second quarter, it was 2.8 percent, well in line with the average growth since 2000. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release third quarter estimates on October 30.

So, with airplane buyers apparently operating counter logic, are fears of a recession imaginary, fanned by incessant media reports of impending doom? Alan Klapmeier of Cirrus thinks so, as he explains in this this podcast. More accurately, he thinks exaggerated media coverage sharpens and deepens economic fears. Cirrus has reduced its production and factory hours to balance its output with soft demand. But it hasn't shutdown.

Klapmeier has a point about news coverage. If you watch enough of it, you'll be dragged into a dark swirling vortex of despair and you'll lose sight of one constant truth: media reports are merely snapshots of the world taken through the narrow lens of the news organization's or the reporter's biases, intended or not. If reality were a brick wall, a single news report is but one brick and may be a faulty one at that. News consumers often forget this.

Carrying this logic forward to the bitter end, would we be in the current crisis if reporters simply didn't do stories on the economy? If you believe that, you may also believe that a million home foreclosures and declining home values don't represent a drag on the GDP. When the history of this crisis is written, I think it will conclude two things: The Dow's wild swings are just old-fashioned investor panic, but the crumping of the housing market is a genuine, first-order effect caused by widespread bad business and consumer decision-making unrelated to panic psychology. Taken together, the toll on the economy is more real than it is media-fueled imagination.

But the silver lining—and there always is a silver lining—is that the used aircraft market strongly favors buyers at the moment. Despite disruption in the mortgage market, credit is available for qualified aircraft buyers, even if terms and interest rates aren't the best. Inventory is high and there are an unusual number of good deals to be found in late-model used airplanes.

Unfortunately for sellers, this has put downward price pressure on older airplanes—say 20 years and older—so owners have to be realistic about what they can get for those aircraft.They'll sell eventually, but brokers say they have to be priced right. For buyers, there's never been a better time to find a high-value deal on a serious, high-performance airplane with good equipment.

That oft-quoted Rockefellerian advice to buy when there's blood in the streets applies to more than just the stock market. The blood isn't quite flowing unstaunched in the used airplane market, but there's enough red for a confident buyer to find a nice deal or two. Keep what you read in the paper and see on the television in the right perspective and you'll be just fine.
 
More Survival Tips

More Survival Tips

Live within your means

I'm sure we all know people living from paycheck to paycheck or buying everything on credit. These people are in trouble - there are consequences to spending money you don't have.

I've always been fiscally conservative. Even when I was making $660/month I was still saving money. I have never lived from paycheck to paycheck. I didn't buy the "Captains Villa" either. I bought based on my salary at that time. I never factored in pay increases - so now I'm in a position where I can pay off my Mortgage very quickly.

At present I don't own a car - I can't justify the economics.

Some people are going to be learning some tough lessons IMHO. I haven't read it yet but there was an article in one of the Dutch newspapers that the first cracks are appearing in the housing market.

Learn to think for yourself

One of the most useful skills you can develop is the ability to think for yourself. Don't blindly accept what others are saying - think!

With a little practice you can filter out the Bullshit and learn who to listen to and who to ignore.

Eventually you'll be able to read between the lines and understand that sometimes it's what isn't being said that's critical.

Educate yourself

We're living in the Information Age - the Internet provides almost unlimited information. Ignorance is no longer an excuse. Unfortunately people are more concerned with Idol than the Economic Catastrophe on our doorstep.

For your education (Warning:- you may not like what you read).

MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis

I've been following this for about a year - he's been pretty accurate with his analysis. One of the best Economic information sites on the Web IMHO.

Clusterfuck Nation

Love the title! Sums things up very nicely. Some very thought provoking writing.

Naked Capitalism

More Global analysis

The Market Ticker

US Analysis

The key to survival is to be prepared for various scenarios.
 
Maar aan de andere kant, als de consument nou massaal grote sommen geld van de bank gaat halen en in een sok gaat stoppen, dan ben je toch zelf ook juist bezig banken in de problemen te brengen?

En als alles naar de klote gaat dan ben je na die twee maanden dus als nog de lul.

The banks have been grossly negligent with your money. They've lent it out to people and countries who cannot pay it back. Not to mention Fractional Reserve Banking - see post #63.

Their problems are now your problem.

It's not unthinkable that at some point the banks will limit withdrawals or close altogether. Look at Iceland. What people don't realise is that every country is in this position.

How will you survive if you cannot access your money? Your PIN pass/Credit Card will be just another piece of plastic.

With cash you can (still) purchase things. It's not unthinkable that we'll see a Currency Collapse at some point. That's why I prefer "hard assets" over cash. Cash is OK for now but whether this will still be the case in 6-12 months is anyone's guess.

In the event of a complete Economic collapse we'll be going back to the Barter System - you can trade cans of soup for milk and cheese. Of course if you have nothing to trade you're screwed.
 
Ja, maar - banken zullen juist uitbetalingen gaan beperken en in moeilijkheden komen als een een run ontstaat en iedereen hun geld van de bank haalt - wat jij dus (gedeeltelijk) suggereert te doen. Paniek is deels wat het financiële systeem kapot maakt en als iedereen inderdaad massaal geld van de bank zou gaan halen dan zouden ze ironisch genoeg zelf de situatie creëren waar ze bang voor zijn.

Ja, een wereldwijde recessie zit er misschien wel aan te komen. Nou ja, jammer - maar das niet het einde van de wereld. Het zal echt niet zo ver komen dat we weer terug gaan naar ruilhandel en zelfs al zou dat gebeuren, dan nog moet je iets produceren om iets te kunnen ruilen. Want als je gaat ruilen wat je op het moment hebt dan ben je daar natuurlijk in no-time doorheen. Kan je maar het beste een boer worden.
 
19 of 77, Sure, the economic crisis is bad, but I'm doubting a doomsday scenario a la Waterworld where people trade pots of sand for food :p.
 
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