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Biscane 
19 of 77
Active member
Not a good situation
Not a good situation
This will flood the market with Pilots - expect a decrease in Terms and Conditions.
Expect to start seeing similar things in Europe later this year. I expect quite a few bankruptcies in the next 6-12 months.
It's going to be a rough ride.
Not a good situation
This will flood the market with Pilots - expect a decrease in Terms and Conditions.
Expect to start seeing similar things in Europe later this year. I expect quite a few bankruptcies in the next 6-12 months.
It's going to be a rough ride.
flyboy.nl
New member
Ik denk dat er wel een paar redenen zijn voor een wat minder pessimistisch beeld aan deze kant van de plas:
- niet zo'n zware kredietcrisis die consumentenbestedingen inperkt
- niet zo'n last van de lage dollarkoers
- relatief kleinere domestic market (waar door moordende concurrentie tickets al tijden onder de kostprijs worden verkocht) en relatief grotere long-haul markt waar meer te verdienen valt
Ik geloof zeker dat er hier klappen gaan vallen, alleen kleinere en mogelijk minder. Maar of dat nou komt doordat wij beter kunnen vliegen?
Erik
- niet zo'n zware kredietcrisis die consumentenbestedingen inperkt
- niet zo'n last van de lage dollarkoers
- relatief kleinere domestic market (waar door moordende concurrentie tickets al tijden onder de kostprijs worden verkocht) en relatief grotere long-haul markt waar meer te verdienen valt
Ik geloof zeker dat er hier klappen gaan vallen, alleen kleinere en mogelijk minder. Maar of dat nou komt doordat wij beter kunnen vliegen?
Erik
6
676$
Guest
19 of 77 -
I am not foreseeing any mass layoffs (North America style) in the near future in Europe. Airlines pay for their fuel in Dollars while making Euro's in the old country. Any hedging going on in the old country? if so even better for them. Legacy carriers in Europe are definitely feeling the pain having to compete with FR and - add your favorite European LCC here - on their domestic/European routes, but are generating enough money on their ICA and cargo flights in general to be able to compensate for this.
The AF/KLM merger (read: take over) was a brilliant move from the French, and pretty much guarantees a steady stream of income in Paris for next couple of decades the way I see it.
If Stella aviation is actually serious about producing 500 pilots annually I do foresee future problems on the Dutch/European market as there is absolutely no way that, that many pilots, will be able to secure a job upon graduation. As such I foresee a further decrease in T&C's, and more "training programs" offering 200/500/1000 hours of Airbus time to newly grads.
Less and less people who finish such hour building programs will be able to secure full time employment afterwards with their training provider, as management knows there are plenty of other 200 hour commercial pilots waiting in line to pay for their hour building program. This will generate income for the airline and bonuses for management. Way to go.
Not to mention the decrease in flight safety that such practices bring with them in my honest opinion. I hope captains will receive instructor pay/ override pay flying with these top guns on top of their captain pay as they will be flight instructing the rest of their lives.
So, where is the money? for now at legacy carriers in Europe, NJE and LCC's after a few years of seniority. Contract work world wide and the middle east. That about sums it up.
The North American (Including our 51st -- Canada --) industry sucks donkey balls right now. Thousands of pilots back on the street lining up behind each other for food stamps, management teams left and right taking full advantage of the situation forcing their pilot groups to bend over and take it up the ass.
With peak oil here (I am willing to go as far as saying the we reached peak oil about 10 years ago), Israel gearing up to drop a few presents on Iran right before the elections in the U.S., plus the fact that I believe that the middle east (Saudi Arabia ) is getting close to their peak oil as well, while world wide demand for oil will keep increasing doesn't exactly make for pretty picture now does it?
When are you retiring? I got 40 years to go. I am still waiting for my beloved uncle Art to hire me in Asia as a first officer on his tail dragger. Don't think it will be getting much better as far as job security goes. Of course by the time the old man stops walking, I'll be getting to see the left seat of that tail dragger. Crop dusting it is.
My best prediction for stable (what a nasty nasty word is that by the way) in our industry will be at :
In Europe:
- European legacies KLM/AF LH and BA. Alitalia will to close their doors soon here me thinks. They should have merged with KLM back in the day.
- Ryanair/Easyjet (survival of the fittest. I do not foresee Air Berlin, Wizz Air etc etc staying around for to much longer, EZ and FR are to much of a fight for them and will take over their flying)
- Corporate flight departments and NJE.
- DHL/TNT Europe
In N. America (including Canada not including Mexico)
- FedEx/UPS/DHL
- the bigger fractionals (Netjets, Citations shares, Flightoptions)
- Air taxi ultra light jet operators. I foresee a huge market for this in the next 5/10 years.
- 2 or 3 LCC's (one or two will have to go tits up in order for the market to correct itself)
- 2 Legacy carriers (one or two will have to go tits up here as well in order for the domestic market to make sense again)
- 135 cargo feeders. There will always be a need for a beat up Chieftain to feed FedEx from Omaha, NE to Twohorsetown, Missouri.
Far and middle East:
- Etihad, Emirates, Qatar
- corporate/fractional markets
- CX/KA/SQ
- And all airlines in China/India will see a unbelievable growth. China will grow stronger and bigger at a unpredictable rate. I foresee there being a huge shortage for experienced captains with time on type. I do not foresee a shortage of F/O's though. As a matter of a fact it wouldn't surprise me if Chinese/Indian LCC's become a training ground for low time European F/O's who pay their way to the right seat.
What would I advice to low time F/O's in Europe? get a type plus hours ASAP if you don't find yourself hired by a legacy carrier, and move to the middle and/or far east or start doing contract work if airline flying is your thing. Be humble, work your ass off and be ready to move to wherever the job is.
This industry really is one freaking joke in general.
Cheers.
FD
I am not foreseeing any mass layoffs (North America style) in the near future in Europe. Airlines pay for their fuel in Dollars while making Euro's in the old country. Any hedging going on in the old country? if so even better for them. Legacy carriers in Europe are definitely feeling the pain having to compete with FR and - add your favorite European LCC here - on their domestic/European routes, but are generating enough money on their ICA and cargo flights in general to be able to compensate for this.
The AF/KLM merger (read: take over) was a brilliant move from the French, and pretty much guarantees a steady stream of income in Paris for next couple of decades the way I see it.
If Stella aviation is actually serious about producing 500 pilots annually I do foresee future problems on the Dutch/European market as there is absolutely no way that, that many pilots, will be able to secure a job upon graduation. As such I foresee a further decrease in T&C's, and more "training programs" offering 200/500/1000 hours of Airbus time to newly grads.
Less and less people who finish such hour building programs will be able to secure full time employment afterwards with their training provider, as management knows there are plenty of other 200 hour commercial pilots waiting in line to pay for their hour building program. This will generate income for the airline and bonuses for management. Way to go.
Not to mention the decrease in flight safety that such practices bring with them in my honest opinion. I hope captains will receive instructor pay/ override pay flying with these top guns on top of their captain pay as they will be flight instructing the rest of their lives.
So, where is the money? for now at legacy carriers in Europe, NJE and LCC's after a few years of seniority. Contract work world wide and the middle east. That about sums it up.
The North American (Including our 51st -- Canada --) industry sucks donkey balls right now. Thousands of pilots back on the street lining up behind each other for food stamps, management teams left and right taking full advantage of the situation forcing their pilot groups to bend over and take it up the ass.
With peak oil here (I am willing to go as far as saying the we reached peak oil about 10 years ago), Israel gearing up to drop a few presents on Iran right before the elections in the U.S., plus the fact that I believe that the middle east (Saudi Arabia ) is getting close to their peak oil as well, while world wide demand for oil will keep increasing doesn't exactly make for pretty picture now does it?
When are you retiring? I got 40 years to go. I am still waiting for my beloved uncle Art to hire me in Asia as a first officer on his tail dragger. Don't think it will be getting much better as far as job security goes. Of course by the time the old man stops walking, I'll be getting to see the left seat of that tail dragger. Crop dusting it is.
My best prediction for stable (what a nasty nasty word is that by the way) in our industry will be at :
In Europe:
- European legacies KLM/AF LH and BA. Alitalia will to close their doors soon here me thinks. They should have merged with KLM back in the day.
- Ryanair/Easyjet (survival of the fittest. I do not foresee Air Berlin, Wizz Air etc etc staying around for to much longer, EZ and FR are to much of a fight for them and will take over their flying)
- Corporate flight departments and NJE.
- DHL/TNT Europe
In N. America (including Canada not including Mexico)
- FedEx/UPS/DHL
- the bigger fractionals (Netjets, Citations shares, Flightoptions)
- Air taxi ultra light jet operators. I foresee a huge market for this in the next 5/10 years.
- 2 or 3 LCC's (one or two will have to go tits up in order for the market to correct itself)
- 2 Legacy carriers (one or two will have to go tits up here as well in order for the domestic market to make sense again)
- 135 cargo feeders. There will always be a need for a beat up Chieftain to feed FedEx from Omaha, NE to Twohorsetown, Missouri.
Far and middle East:
- Etihad, Emirates, Qatar
- corporate/fractional markets
- CX/KA/SQ
- And all airlines in China/India will see a unbelievable growth. China will grow stronger and bigger at a unpredictable rate. I foresee there being a huge shortage for experienced captains with time on type. I do not foresee a shortage of F/O's though. As a matter of a fact it wouldn't surprise me if Chinese/Indian LCC's become a training ground for low time European F/O's who pay their way to the right seat.
What would I advice to low time F/O's in Europe? get a type plus hours ASAP if you don't find yourself hired by a legacy carrier, and move to the middle and/or far east or start doing contract work if airline flying is your thing. Be humble, work your ass off and be ready to move to wherever the job is.
This industry really is one freaking joke in general.
Cheers.
FD
superpilut
Active member
nou, nou, nou, is dat nou nodig?
Omdat in de EU geen Chapter11 bestaat is het failliet of niet (behalve Alitalia dan), daarom moeten ze wel beter gerund worden.
6
676$
Guest
Help het je hopen Superpilot. Echter waait wat er hier op mijn eiland gebeurd redelijk vaak over naar Europa na verloop van tijd....
Maar denk dat jij relatief goed zit. Zie Cargolux niet een, twee drie de deuren dichtgooien.
Wanneer kom je weer deze kant op?
Take care.
FD
Maar denk dat jij relatief goed zit. Zie Cargolux niet een, twee drie de deuren dichtgooien.
Wanneer kom je weer deze kant op?
Take care.
FD
superpilut
Active member
Natuurlijk, mit Vorsicht zu Geniessen, maar je ziet toch wel aanmerkelijk minder dramatische up- en downswings in Europa. De Mega orders bij Boeing en co kwamen nooit uit Europa.
Mondjesmaat gelimiteerde groei lijkt het motto te zijn.
Afgezien van de loco's natuurlijk en bedrijven met grootheidswaanzin zoals Air Berlin, maar ik vergelijk nou even voor het gemak de legacy carriers...
Hopenlijk blijft het natuurlijk zo..
Ben volgende week in LAX en IAH. Jij toevallig in de omgeving?
Mondjesmaat gelimiteerde groei lijkt het motto te zijn.
Afgezien van de loco's natuurlijk en bedrijven met grootheidswaanzin zoals Air Berlin, maar ik vergelijk nou even voor het gemak de legacy carriers...
Hopenlijk blijft het natuurlijk zo..
Ben volgende week in LAX en IAH. Jij toevallig in de omgeving?
M
Morning Glory
Guest
Ik kwam bij het bladeren dit "oudere" topic tegen.
Hoe snel kan de wereld veranderen.
Lees vooral post #5 even en dat was nog geen 4 maanden geleden!!!
Weten jullie nog: toen FD nog in da house was en niet als colour.
Sorry flyboy, maar ik ga toch met 19 of 77 voor mijn aandelenadvies de volgende keer. No hard feelings.
Hoe snel kan de wereld veranderen.
Lees vooral post #5 even en dat was nog geen 4 maanden geleden!!!
Weten jullie nog: toen FD nog in da house was en niet als colour.
Sorry flyboy, maar ik ga toch met 19 of 77 voor mijn aandelenadvies de volgende keer. No hard feelings.
Jetcap
New member
Dank u.